wtf is divergence-desk?

Divergence Desk is a trading tool built for a hackathon that compares live sports probabilities from a data provider called TxLINE against prices on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. The idea is that TxLINE's numbers, once bookmaker margin is removed, represent the true probability of an outcome, and the desk looks for cases where the two markets have not caught up to that truth yet. The project points out a specific problem: Polymarket's soccer markets treat a draw as a real possible outcome within ninety minutes, while Kalshi's contracts only ask whether a team advances, which includes extra time and penalties and has no draw option. Comparing those two directly would produce false signals, since they are really answering different questions. Divergence Desk converts every venue's price onto a shared, correctly defined probability before comparing anything, which the project describes as its core technical contribution. Once prices are on the same footing, the tool looks for two kinds of opportunity: a locked in profit when two venues' prices add up to less than one after fees, and a longer term statistical edge when one venue disagrees with TxLINE's truth by enough to be worth a sized bet using a risk limited approach called half Kelly. All trading in this project happens on a paper ledger, meaning no real money moves and no live transactions are signed on the main blockchain. Signals are optionally recorded on Solana's test network as a hash, so the timing and content of each signal can be checked later. The backend is built with Node and Express, and the frontend desk interface uses Vite and React. The README also lists detailed feedback about quirks in the TxLINE data feed that the developers ran into while building, such as fields that arrive as text instead of numbers and empty values that actually mean the market has paused rather than that something is broken.