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wtf is xau-dxy-session-divergence?

mykola-quant/xau-dxy-session-divergence — explained in plain English

Analysis updated 2026-05-18

1PythonAudience · researcherComplexity · 2/5LicenseSetup · moderate

TL;DR

A pre-registered statistical study testing whether gold and the US Dollar Index diverge during specific trading sessions, reporting the headline result as not confirmed.

Mindmap

mindmap
  root((XAU DXY Divergence))
    What it does
      Tests session divergence
      Pre-registers hypothesis
      Reports honest results
    Tech stack
      Python
    Use cases
      Study trading research method
      Run price data collection
      Learn permutation testing
    Audience
      Traders
      Quant researchers

Code map

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Why would anyone build with this?

REASON 1

Review a transparent example of pre-registered trading strategy testing methodology.

REASON 2

Run the included Python scripts to collect gold and dollar index price data.

REASON 3

Study how permutation tests and bootstrap confidence intervals are applied to trading signals.

REASON 4

Use the exploratory scripts as a template for testing session-based market patterns.

What's in the stack?

Python

How it stacks up

mykola-quant/xau-dxy-session-divergence0xustaz/streamgatea-bissell/unleash-lite
Stars111
LanguagePythonPythonPython
Setup difficultymoderatehardhard
Complexity2/54/54/5
Audienceresearcherdeveloperresearcher

Figures from each repo's GitHub metadata at analysis time.

How do you spin it up?

Difficulty · moderate Time to first run · 30min

Requires running Python data collection scripts against Dukascopy price history before analysis can be reproduced.

Wtf does this do

This project is a research study that tests a trading idea about gold prices and the US Dollar Index moving apart from each other during specific trading session windows, like the London or New York market open. It is part of a public series of studies where the author writes down the exact rule and test method before looking at the confirming data, so the result cannot be quietly adjusted afterward to look better. The main, pre-registered version of the idea did not pass the bar the author set for themselves ahead of time. The average return per trade was slightly positive, but the statistical test used to check if that result could just be random chance came back just above the cutoff needed to call it a real effect. So the headline claim is reported honestly as not confirmed. However, when the author broke the results down by time window, a more interesting pattern showed up. Results tied to the London trading session were inconsistent depending on how the price data was measured, five minute bars versus fifteen minute bars gave very different answers, which is a sign of noise rather than a genuine pattern. Results tied to the New York session, on the other hand, stayed consistent across several different measurement windows, suggesting there might be something real happening there, even though this was not the exact claim that was locked in ahead of time. The author also ran an extra, clearly labeled after the fact check using a wider four hour window instead of the original two hour one. This is described honestly as exploratory only, since it was run after seeing the results, and it showed the New York pattern getting stronger while the London pattern got weaker, further supporting the idea that only the New York effect might be worth investigating further. The repository includes the locked methodology document, Python scripts that collect the price data and run the official analysis, an extra exploratory script, the raw data collected, and the result files as CSV documents. The project is shared under the MIT license, and the author points to a separate follow up repository where the New York specific idea gets its own fresh, properly locked in test.

Yoink these prompts

Prompt 1
Explain how the pre-registration and confirmation data split works in this study.
Prompt 2
Walk me through what scripts/run_analysis.py does with the collected price data.
Prompt 3
Help me understand why the London session results are considered noise here.
Prompt 4
Show me how to adapt this session divergence test to a different currency pair.

Frequently asked questions

wtf is xau-dxy-session-divergence?

A pre-registered statistical study testing whether gold and the US Dollar Index diverge during specific trading sessions, reporting the headline result as not confirmed.

What language is xau-dxy-session-divergence written in?

Mainly Python. The stack also includes Python.

How hard is xau-dxy-session-divergence to set up?

Setup difficulty is rated moderate, with roughly 30min to a first successful run.

Who is xau-dxy-session-divergence for?

Mainly researcher.

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